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Investors

Guidance

Guidance

This page contains forward looking statements & alternative performance measures. Please see the bottom of this page for further details.

FY24

The outlook for FY24 reflects our current assessment of market conditions. Unless stated otherwise, guidance is on an adjusted[1] comparable & FX-neutral basis. Guidance is therefore provided on the basis that the acquisition of CCBPI occurred on 1 Jan 2023.

Financial metric   FY24 guidance
Revenue   ~4%
Cost of sales per unit case   3-4%
Operating profit   ~7%
Finance costs   ~2%
Comparable effective tax rate   ~25%
Free cash flow   ~€1.7bn
Capex   5% of revenue 2
Dividend payout ratio   ~50%3

1Financial information adjusted as if the acquisition of CCBPI occurred at the beginning of the period presented for illustrative purposes only, it is not intended to estimate or predict future financial performance or what actual results would have been. Acquisition completed on 23 February 2024. Prepared on a basis consistent with CCEP accounting policies & include provisional transaction accounting adjustments for the period 1 January to 23 February

2Excluding payments of principal on lease obligations

3Dividends subject to Board approval

Mid Term Annual Objectives

Financial metric Mid term annual objectives
Revenue growth ~4%[1]
Operating profit growth ~7%[1]
Free cash flow ~€1.7bn p.a.
Net debt / adjusted ebitda 2.5X – 3.0X
ROIC ~+50bps p.a.
Capex[3] ~4-5% of revenue
Dividend payout ratio Approximately 50%[2]

[1]Mid term annual objectives for revenue & operating profit are comparable and fx-neutral.
[2]Dividends subject to Board approval.
[3]Excluding payments of principal on lease obligations.

Forward-Looking Statements

This page contains statements, estimates or projections that constitute “forward-looking statements” concerning the financial condition, performance, results, guidance and outlook, dividends, consequences of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, strategy and objectives of Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc and its subsidiaries (together CCEP or the Group). Generally, the words “ambition”, “target”, “aim”, “believe”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “project”, “plan”, “seek”, “may”, “could”, “would”, “should”, “might”, “will”, “forecast”, “outlook”, “guidance”, “possible”, “potential”, “predict”, “objective” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements, which generally are not historical in nature.

 

Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from CCEP’s historical experience and present expectations or projections. As a result, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. These risks include but are not limited to:

 

  1. those set forth in the “Risk Factors” section of CCEP’s 2021 Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC on 15 March 2022 and as updated and supplemented with the additional information set forth in the “Principal Risks and Risk Factors” section of the H1 2022 Half-year Report filed with the SEC on 4 August 2022;

 

  1. the extent to which COVID-19 will continue to affect CCEP and the results of its operations, financial condition and cash flows will depend on future developments that are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the pandemic and actions taken by governmental authorities and other third parties in response to the pandemic;

 

  1. risks and uncertainties relating to the global supply chain, including impact from war in Ukraine, such as the risk that the business will not be able to guarantee sufficient supply of raw materials, supplies, finished goods, natural gas and oil and increased state-sponsored cyber risks;

 

  1. risks and uncertainties relating to the global economy and/or a potential recession in one or more countries, including risks from elevated inflation, price increases, price elasticity, disposable income of consumers and employees, pressure on and from suppliers, increased fraud, and the perception or manifestation of a global economic downturn; and

 

  1. risks and uncertainties relating to potential global energy crisis, with potential interruptions and shortages in the global energy supply, specifically the natural gas supply in our territories. Energy shortages at our sites, our suppliers and customers could cause interruptions to our supply chain and capability to meet our production and distribution targets.

 

Due to these risks, CCEP’s actual future results, dividend payments, capital and leverage ratios, growth, including growth in revenue, cost of sales per unit case and operating profit, free cash flow, market share, tax rate, efficiency savings, achievement of sustainability goals, including net zero emissions, capital expenditures, the results of the acquisition of the minority share of our Indonesian business, and the results of the integration of the businesses following the acquisition of Coca-Cola Amatil, including expected efficiency and combination savings, may differ materially from the plans, goals, expectations and guidance set out in forward-looking statements. These risks may also adversely affect CCEP’s share price. Additional risks that may impact CCEP’s future financial condition and performance are identified in filings with the SEC which are available on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. CCEP does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required under applicable rules, laws and regulations. Any or all of the forward-looking statements contained in this filing and in any other of CCEP’s public statements may prove to be incorrect.

 

Alternative Performance Measures

 

Alternative Performance Measures

 

We use certain alternative performance measures (non-GAAP performance measures) to make financial, operating and planning decisions and to evaluate and report performance. We believe these measures provide useful information to investors and as such, where clearly identified, we have included certain alternative performance measures in this document to allow investors to better analyse our business performance and allow for greater comparability. To do so, we have excluded items affecting the comparability of period-over-period financial performance as described below. The alternative performance measures included herein should be read in conjunction with and do not replace the directly reconcilable GAAP measures.

For purposes of this document, the following terms are defined:

 

‘‘As reported’’ are results extracted from our consolidated financial statements.

 

‘‘Pro forma’’ includes the results of CCEP and API as if the Acquisition had occurred at the beginning of 2021, including acquisition accounting adjustments relating to provisional fair values. Pro forma also includes impact of the additional debt financing costs incurred by CCEP in connection with the Acquisition for all periods presented.

 

"Comparable’’ is defined as results excluding items impacting comparability, which include restructuring charges, acquisition and integration related costs, inventory fair value step up related to acquisition accounting, the impact of the closure of the GB defined benefit pension scheme, net impact related to European flooding, income arising from the favourable court ruling pertaining to the ownership of certain mineral rights in Australia, and net tax items relating to rate and law changes. Comparable volume is also adjusted for selling days.

 

‘‘Pro forma Comparable’’ is defined as the pro forma results excluding items impacting comparability, as described above.

 

‘‘Fx-neutral’’ is defined as period results excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate changes. Foreign exchange impact is calculated by recasting current year results at prior year exchange rates.

 

‘‘Capex’’ or “Capital expenditures’’ is defined as purchases of property, plant and equipment and capitalised software, plus payments of principal on lease obligations, less proceeds from disposals of property, plant and equipment. Capex is used as a measure to ensure that cash spending on capital investment is in line with the Group’s overall strategy for the use of cash.

 

‘‘Free cash flow’’ is defined as net cash flows from operating activities less capital expenditures (as defined above) and interest paid. Free cash flow is used as a measure of the Group’s cash generation from operating activities, taking into account investments in property, plant and equipment and non-discretionary lease and interest payments. Free cash flow is not intended to represent residual cash flow available for discretionary expenditures.

 

‘‘Adjusted free cash flow’’ is defined as Free cash flow (as defined above) adjusted for items that are not reasonably likely to recur within two years, nor have occurred within the prior two years. Adjusted free cash flow is not intended to represent residual cash flow available for discretionary expenditures. Refer to page 19 for additional information.

 

‘‘Adjusted EBITDA’’ is calculated as Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA), after adding back items impacting the comparability of period over period financial performance. Adjusted EBITDA does not reflect cash expenditures, or future requirements for capital expenditures or contractual commitments. Further, adjusted EBITDA does not reflect changes in, or cash requirements for, working capital needs, and although depreciation and amortisation are non-cash charges, the assets being depreciated and amortised are likely to be replaced in the future and adjusted EBITDA does not reflect cash requirements for such replacements.

 

‘‘Net Debt’’ is defined as the net of cash and cash equivalents and short term investments less borrowings and adjusted for the fair value of hedging instruments related to borrowings and other financial assets/liabilities related to borrowings. We believe that reporting net debt is useful as it reflects a metric used by the Group to assess cash management and leverage. In addition, the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA is used by investors, analysts and credit rating agencies to analyse our operating performance in the context of targeted financial leverage.

 

‘‘ROIC” or “Return on invested capital” is defined as comparable operating profit after tax attributable to shareholders divided by the average of opening and closing invested capital for the year. Invested capital is calculated as the addition of borrowings and equity attributable to shareholders less cash and cash equivalents and short term investments. ROIC is used as a measure of capital efficiency and reflects how well the Group generates comparable operating profit relative to the capital invested in the business.

‘‘Dividend payout ratio’’ is defined as dividends as a proportion of comparable profit after tax.

 

Additionally, within this document, we provide certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial Information, which management uses for planning and measuring performance. We are not able to reconcile forward-looking non-GAAP measures to reported measures without unreasonable efforts because it is not possible to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty the actual impact or exact timing of items that may impact comparability throughout year.

 

Unless otherwise stated, percent amounts are rounded to the nearest 0.5%.

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